Ethnopolitical Processes in the North Caucasus: Dynamics and Stabilizing Factors
Viktor A. Avksent’ev1, Galina D. Gritsenko2, Svetlana Yu. Ivanova3, Marina M. Shul’ga4,
1Viktor A. Avksent’ev, Doctor of Philosophy, Professor, Chief Researcher, Federal Research Center Southern Scientific Center of Russian Academy of Sciences, Rostov-on-Don, Russia.
2Galina D. Gritsenko, Doctor of Philosophy, Professor, Chief Researcher, Federal Research Center Southern Scientific Center of Russian Academy of Sciences, Rostov-on-Don, Russia.
3Svetlana Yu. Ivanova, Doctor of Philosophy, Professor, Chief Researcher, Federal Research Center Southern Scientific Center of Russian Academy of Sciences, Rostov-on-Don, Russia.
4Marina M. Shul’ga, Doctor of Sociology, Professor, Leading Researcher, Federal Research Center Southern Scientific Center of Russian Academy of Sciences, Rostov-on-Don, Russia.
Manuscript received on 6 August 2019. | Revised Manuscript received on 11 August 2019. | Manuscript published on 30 September 2019. | PP: 2211-2215 | Volume-8 Issue-3 September 2019 | Retrieval Number: C4592098319/19©BEIESP | DOI: 10.35940/ijrte.C4592.098319
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© The Authors. Blue Eyes Intelligence Engineering and Sciences Publication (BEIESP). This is an open access article under the CC-BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Abstract: The paper is based on the results of an expert survey conducted in 2016-2017 in all territories located in of the North Caucasian Federal District. A detailed analysis of the results of the study, obtained by the method of expert assessments (Delphi group) is presented. The hierarchy of risks and threats was worked out and specified. The major risk factors include: the persistency of ethno-clan structure, the deterioration of the socio-economic situation of a large part of the population and extremism, based on external factors. It is concluded that the ethnopolitical situation in the region is characterized by a combination of both positive and negative trends with a certain prevalence of stabilizing processes, but the regional situation can gain the reverse direction at any time.
Key words: The North Caucasus, ethnopolitical situation, Expert Evaluation, Conflict Forecasts; Factors of Ethnopolitical Tension, Delphi Method.
Scope of the Article: Manufacturing Processes