Estimating Electricity Consumption in the Commercial Sector of Nigeria’s Economy
O Y Usman1, M K Abdullah2, A N Mohammed3
1O Y Usman, Faculty of Mechanical & Manufacturing Engineering, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia, Parit Raja, Johor, Malaysia.
2M K Abdullah, Faculty of Mechanical & Manufacturing Engineering, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia, Parit Raja, Johor, Malaysia.
3A N Mohammed, Faculty of Mechanical & Manufacturing Engineering, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia, Parit Raja, Johor, Malaysia.
Manuscript received on 10 May 2019 | Revised Manuscript received on 19 May 2019 | Manuscript Published on 23 May 2019 | PP: 1594-1600 | Volume-7 Issue-6S5 April 2019 | Retrieval Number: F12820476S519/2019©BEIESP
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© The Authors. Blue Eyes Intelligence Engineering and Sciences Publication (BEIESP). This is an open access article under the CC-BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Abstract: The level of electricity consumption in the commercial sector of Nigeria’s economy has been increasing due to expanding economic opportunities in both urban and rural areas. The purpose of this study was to identify the notable variables dictating the volume of electricity consumption in Nigeria’s commercial sector and use multiple linear regression analysis technique to model and forecast future energy demands in the sector. Seven explanatory variables were initially selected, out of which stepwise regression technique was used to select the best subset of model variables consisting of temperature, rainfall, total electricity delivered, total primary energy and relative humidity. Annual time series data covering a period of 1990 to 2014 was used for the study. The developed model has a coefficient of determination, R2, of 98.6% and a probability value of 2.2 x 10-16 and it shows appreciable capacity for predicting the observed values with a root mean square error of 176.12. The study suggests that the huge influence of rainfall, total electricity generated, total primary energy and population on electricity consumption in the sector should be given considerable attention in formulating concrete energy policy and power plant design for the purpose of guaranteeing sustainable energy supply.
Keywords: Commercial Sector, Electricity Consumption, Forecasting, Linear Regression, Variables.
Scope of the Article: Mechanical Maintenance