Future Assessment of Precipitation and Temperature for Developing Urban Catchment Under Impact of Climate Change
Akram S. Pathan1, Milind L. Waikar2
1Akram S. Pathan *, Civil Engineering Department, (SGGSIE & T), Nanded, India.
2Milind L. Waikar, Civil Engineering Department, (SGGSIE & T), Nanded 431606, India.
Manuscript received on January 01, 2020. | Revised Manuscript received on January 20, 2020. | Manuscript published on January 30, 2020. | PP: 3395-3404 | Volume-8 Issue-5, January 2020. | Retrieval Number: E5062018520/2020©BEIESP | DOI: 10.35940/ijrte.E5062.018520
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© The Authors. Blue Eyes Intelligence Engineering and Sciences Publication (BEIESP). This is an open access article under the CC-BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Abstract: In this study, the attempt is made to investigate the impact of future climate changes related to three weather parameter maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin) and precipitation for study area were projected for two future time slice (2017–2058), and (2059–2100) from the three Global Climate Models (GCMs), CanESM2, CGCM3 and HadCM3 under different representative concentration pathway (RCPs) scenarios (RCP2.5, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) using statistical downscaling model (SDSM). The predictor variables are downloaded from National Center for Environmental Prediction/Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and simulations from the three Global Climate Models (GCMs), Second Generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2), Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CGCM3) and Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research/Met Office (HadCM3) variability and changes in Tmax, Tmin and precipitation under different (RCPs) scenarios have been presented for two future time slice. The performance for three models showed maximum/minimum temperature increases in future for almost all the (RCPs) scenarios. Also precipitation of the entire catchment was found to increasing trends for all scenarios. In case of HadCM3 model, under RCP8.5 scenarios for the period (2017-2058), changes in max temperature, min temperature, and precipitation are forecasted as 0.72 °C, 1.42 °C, and 2.82 mm and for the period (2059-2100) are 1.16 °C, 2.14 °C, and 6.85 mm.The results obtained from HadCM3 model is higher side as compared with CanESM2, CGCM3.These results can provide understanding of the hydrologic role of future climate change scenarios, which is essential for probable impacts of climate change for planning and management of appropriate choice for designing the storm water drainage system and infrastructure for newly growing urbanization under climate change are of great concern to hydrologists, water managers, and policymakers.
Keywords: Downscaling, Can ESM2, CGCM3, HadCM3, General Circulation model (GCM), Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs), Temperature, Precipitation.
Scope of the Article: Probabilistic Models and Methods.