Simulation Modeling of Cost Overrun in Construction Project in Ethiopia
Geletaw Taye
Geletaw Taye, Lecturer, Dilla University, Department of Construction technology and management, Dilla University ,Dilla , Ethiopia.
Manuscript received on November 17., 2019. | Revised Manuscript received on November 24 2019. | Manuscript published on 30 November, 2019. | PP: 12685-12691 | Volume-8 Issue-4, November 2019. | Retrieval Number: D9121118419/2019©BEIESP | DOI: 10.35940/ijrte.D9121.118419
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© The Authors. Blue Eyes Intelligence Engineering and Sciences Publication (BEIESP). This is an open access article under the CC-BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Abstract: Cost is an essential part of any construction project. It was observed that cost overrun is one of the most frequently occurring issues in construction projects of Ethiopia and it is more severe in different parts of the country. The aim of this research has identified the factors that influence cost overruns of construction projects, quantified the percentage of identified factors, established probability distribution of identified factors and develop simulation modeling of cost overrun. The study was conducted based on the desk study and questionnaire survey. Questionnaire surveys were analyzed by using Relative Important Index (RII) ranking and significance of data checked by using a t-test at a 95% confidence level. Based on the desk study of 19 projects, a simulation model of cost overrun was developed by using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Simulation models showed a higher frequency of cost overrun occurring up to 10%. This indicates that the actual cost of most construction projects runs up to 10 % over the budgeted cost of work performed. Authors
Keywords: Cost Overrun, Monte Carlo Simulation Modeling, Probability Distribution.
Scope of the Article: Network Modelling and Simulation.