Methods of Forecasting the Development of the Nation’s Economy Based on the Forecast of Automotive Products Export
Burdina Anna Anatolyevna1, Moskvicheva Natalia Valerevna2, Melik-Aslanova Narmina Oktay3
1Burdina Anna Anatolyevna, dr. econ sciences, professor, Department of Innovative Economics, Finance and Project Management Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University) MAI Address: 125993, Russia, Moscow, Volokolamskoye highway, 4, A-80, GSP-3.
2Moskvicheva Natalia Valerevna, сand. econ. sciences, associate professor, Department of Innovative Economics, Finance and Project Management Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University) MAI Address: 125993, Russia, Moscow, Volokolamskoye highway, 4, A-80, GSP-3.
3Melik-Aslanova Narmina Oktay, сand. econ. sciences, associate professor, Department of Innovative Economics, Finance and Project Management Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University) MAI Address: 125993, Russia, Moscow, Volokolamskoye highway, 4, A-80, GSP-3.
Manuscript received on 1 August 2019. | Revised Manuscript received on 8 August 2019. | Manuscript published on 30 September 2019. | PP: 2216-2221 | Volume-8 Issue-3 September 2019 | Retrieval Number: C4593098319/19©BEIESP | DOI: 10.35940/ijrte.C4593.098319
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© The Authors. Blue Eyes Intelligence Engineering and Sciences Publication (BEIESP). This is an open access article under the CC-BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Abstract: Various forecasting methods and models have been analyzed, the possibility of their use in forecasting the automotive products export has been substantiated in the study. A mechanism for predicting the automotive products export based on regression analysis, Fisher’s ratio, Pearson correlation coefficient has been proposed. The analysis of the automotive products market has been conducted, a mechanism has been designed to substantiate the connection between the export of automotive products and the development of the nation’s economy. A methodology has been developed to forecast the development of the nation’s economy based on the forecast for automotive products export. The reliability of the statement that the sale of cars characterizes the development of the economy has been proved. The proposed methodology is recommended to be used for forecasting GDP, development of the nation’s economy, and at the strategic level of planning the development of the automotive industry.
Keywords: Methods, Forecasting Models, Correlation, Covariance, Regression Analysis, Fisher’s Ratio, Pearson Correlation Coefficient, Gross Domestic Product.
Scope of the Article: Mobile App Design and Development